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De-Escalation Leads to Elation

Let’s Make a Deal?

What to Expect When You’re Expecting

The stock and bond market action this week was primarily driven by economic data.  The S&P 500 fell roughly 3% Tuesday - Wednesday as the ISM Manufacturing Index indicated that the manufacturing sector is currently contracting. 

We live in a data obsessed world.  The rise of super computers, over half a century ago, gave us the opportunity to quickly retrieve, analyze, and create a solution around all sorts of computable information.  We can thank IBM for that.  What began as a niche in most industries, data compilation and analysis, has now evolved into the new arms race--who can gain the greatest edge by compiling the most discrete and pertinent information and data.  But

IMPEACHMENT.  President Trump on Thursday warned voters “If they actually did this (impeached me) the markets would crash.  Do you think it was luck that got us to the best Stock Market and Economy in our history?  It wasn’t!”  So classic.  Set aside the capitalization and punctuation errors, Trump's statement implies that corporate earnings and future earnings growth rely huugely on him.   After all the perception of future earnings growth underpin

The Federal Reserve made their interest rate decision this week.  As expected, they announced a 0.25% interest rate cut on the federal funds rate.  The target rate was lowered to 1.75% from 2.00%.  Apparently, this wasn’t enough for Donald Trump, he tweeted “Jay Powell and the Federal Reserve Fail Again. No “guts,” no sense, no vision! A terrible communicator!”  The truth is, the US economy is doing fine.

Let’s get one thing out of the way really quick—I believe in all of the benefits provided by low-cost index funds and Exchange Traded Funds (ETF’s for short).  I would never argue with the likes of Warren Buffett when he hammers home to everyday investors the benefits of keeping fees down and simply purchasing index funds to gain access to stock market investments.  I mean, he doesn’t do it, but then again, he’s Warren Buffett. 

Equity markets continued to break out higher this week while bonds and other haven assets retreated.  The week was punctuated with positive US economic data and benign to slightly positive trade news.  We are within 1% of the all-time high of 3025 on the S&P 500 achieved on July 29^th.  This may prove to be another line of resistance.   

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