Latest Posts

Don’t Fight the Fed, But That Goes Both Ways

by Zach Marsh on Jun 3, 2022

Among stock market analysts, opinion is becoming nearly unanimous that the market has not yet found a bottom. Since the S&P 500 began to decline at the beginning of the year we have seen four substantial bounces, averaging 9%, the most recent one being the rally from 5/12-6/2. Each of these bounces have resulted in the S&P 500 revisiting its prior low or making new lows. This price action is frequently referred to as a bear market rally.

The Sell-Off Continues

by Zach Marsh on May 20, 2022

US equity indices, as of 10am, seem nearly certain to log another down week. Absent a dramatic turnaround this afternoon, this down week will mark the 7th consecutive losing week for the large-cap index. Year-to-date the S&P 500 now sits nearly 18.5% below its all-time closing high set on January 3rd of this year. The tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 and the small-cap Russell 2000 are both down roughly 30% from their all-time highs.

The Chopping Block

by Zach Marsh on May 6, 2022

We witnessed another choppy week in the stock market. On Wednesday the Fed announced that it was raising the Federal Funds rate by 0.50%, but further announced that it was not considering future hikes of 0.75% or 1.0%. It did, however, say that it foresees the need to raise another 50 basis points at each of its next two meetings. The market’s immediate response to this news was to send the S&P 500 up by over 3% Wednesday afternoon.

Q1 in Review

by Zach Marsh on Apr 1, 2022

2022 has gotten off to a rough start. Stocks began to buckle under the prospect of the Fed’s response to runaway inflation even before Russian forces invaded Ukraine. Putin’s decision to invade Ukraine not only exacerbated the prospects for lasting inflation, but also the prospect for a continually destabilized geo-political world.

One of Two Bitter Pills to Swallow

by Zach Marsh on Mar 11, 2022

At risk of sounding like a broken record, the monthly CPI report came out this week and showed another four-decade high inflation reading. As much as the President would like to lay the blame at the feet of Russia’s invasion into the Ukraine for our current inflation crisis, the dye was cast long before military action began. To be fair, in my opinion the dye was cast even before the 2020 election.

“The Past is Never Dead”

by Zach Marsh on Feb 25, 2022

Often times when I’m writing these pieces, I reflect on the letters I’ve written in the past. Notably, when the stock market is riding a wave of optimism and euphoria is the mood du jour, I remember the notes written during the bad times. A few weeks back I was recalling the notes written in March of 2020. Fear gripped not just the markets but pervaded every aspect of our lives.

What’s the Fed Gotta Do to Catch a Break Around Here?

by Zach Marsh on Feb 11, 2022

This week’s headline event was definitely the CPI report that came out yesterday. The expectations were for an inflation reading of 7.3%, with many hoping that the number would actually surprise to the downside. Instead, the number came in higher than expected at 7.5%. The major US stock market indices didn’t like that one bit. The S&P 500 fell over 1.7%, while the Nasdaq 100 dropped 2.2% on the day of the report.

Market Ramblings from a Delusional Dreamer

by Zach Marsh on Jan 14, 2022

Just two weeks into the year and the market is already grappling with the prospect and the impact of Federal Reserve policy change. Largely ignored during the final quarter of 2021, the Fed has clearly indicated to the market that it will begin tapering its asset purchases and raising interest rates this year. Wednesday, we got another glimpse of the reasons why they are having to change course.