Ditch the index. Leave it behind. Indices are arbitrary, they have their path to follow you have yours. Let’s face it, you know where you want to go, the index doesn’t. Calibrated thinking places your goals as your index—your barometer. By charting your path, balancing your investment risk, and untethering yourself from an arbitrary index, you will have bought yourself freedom: freedom to turn off the noise.
At Calibrate Wealth, we start with Why — the why you do this in the first place. Restated: we calibrate your plan by starting at the end and looking back to where you are. Next, we help you define your path. We make your path safe and direct; we continually review, readjust, and repeat.
At Calibrate, we put the focus on things we can control. We start with your input, risk. And risk is, after all, what you add when you invest. In contrast, returns are the hoped-for output from your investment. Calibrated investing begins with the risk input and works forward. We balance risk between asset classes and between market outcomes. We accept the future as being uncertain, and build investment strategies with that understanding. We build your strategy designed to accommodate all types of market climates, not just one for the “good times.”
This week the market seems to have shaken off the September slump. After struggling to put together a convincing rally during the last 18 trading sessions, the S&P 500 appears to be breaking out above previous resistance levels. If the market holds its current levels as of 12:30 pm very little stands in the way of it regaining the highs set in early September. However, much remains to be proven before we can confidently state that the persistent upward trajectory of the market will resume.
Today marked the beginning of not just a new month but a new quarter for financial markets. September, traditionally the worst month for the stock market, delivered returns inline with tradition. For the month the S&P was down over 4.9%, the Nasdaq 100 was down 5.6%, and the small-cap Russell 2000 was down 2.9%. September also brought the 3rd quarter to a close. For the quarter the S&P 500 still managed a gain to eke out a small gain of .65%.
Many commodities are in short supply these days. Car manufacturers can produce enough cars due to chip shortages. Ask any contractor and they’ll tell you how dear lumber was, earlier this year. I even read somewhere that the price of window coverings went up over 17% in just the month of August. But if you ask me, the one thing that we are in very short supply of these days is context.
Given the rapid upward trajectory of the stock market since the March 2020 lows, recent market behavior has felt a little like a wet blanket. The headline S&P 500 index has continued to push higher, and the large-cap tech index Nasdaq 100 has followed along. But for those seeking equity allocation away from large-cap US stocks the returns have been much more challenging.
