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It was another lather, rinse, and repeat week in the markets. The S&P 500 finished up 1.37%, 10-year US Treasury notes rose 0.3%, gold gained 1.17%, and the Nasdaq 100 added 2.23%. Notably, Bitcoin has continued to struggle, falling midweek to $33,000, or roughly 50% below its all time high. Similarly, Dogecoin is currently 57% below its all time high.

One of the most common questions that I get asked is, “Where do you think the stock market is going?” While I understand it is human nature’s desperate need for answers and clarity during periods of heightened uncertainty, just look at the geo-politics in the 1930’s, but unfortunately answers are difficult to provide.

This week we witnessed a pickup in volatility. Perhaps it was the CPI reading which showed a dramatic increase in inflation—6.2% year over year and 0.9% month over month. Maybe it was fallout from the Colonial Pipeline hacking. Or, maybe, it was recent changes in CDC guidelines causing a further unwind of the lockdown trade. Whatever the cause, markets certainly were a bit jittery this week.

If you are not into baseball analogies, be forewarned this is going to be one of those pieces. If the whole, “baseball is like life because…” spiel reminds you of Brussels Sprouts, deviled eggs, or jello salad, just stop reading right now, because it might get a bit nauseating.

Major US stock market indices were largely flat this week. The tech-ladened Nasdaq 100 fared a bit worse than the large cap S&P 500 which is a bit surprising considering many of the biggest components had blow out earnings this week. Amazon, Apple, Google, Facebook, and Microsoft all reported this week and all surpassed expectations.

The markets are closed today in observance of Easter. The large cap S&P 500 chopped around most of the week, before pushing higher yesterday to close up over 1.15% on the week. Additionally, the indices that had been recent laggards, the Russell 2000 and the Nasdaq 100, outperformed the broad-based index, finishing up 1.42% and 2.7% respectively.

Major indices were down this week as interest rates continued to push higher. Thursday saw the biggest down day of the week, with the Nasdaq 100 and the small-cap Russell 2000 indices dropping roughly 3%. Bonds stabilized a bit today giving a lift to stocks. On Wednesday the Jerome Powell, the Federal Reserve chairman, spoke following the Fed’s two-day policy meeting.

Interest rates continued their rapid ascent this week. The headline 10 year US Treasury note settling above 1.63% and the 30 year bond closing near 2.4%. For context, that is a 45% increase in the rate of the 30 year bond since the beginning of the year and a 79% increase in the rate on the 10 year bond. However, this week the market took the continued rise in rates a little more in stride.

What’s the line about how looks can be deceiving? That can definitely be said about this week’s market action. On the surface the broad-based equity indices put in a fairly benign performance. The headline S&P 500 index ended the week modestly higher from the week prior. Big name stocks, like Apple, Microsoft, Facebook, and Google all ended the week either moderately lower or posting small gains.

Just a short note today. This week we saw bond prices tumble as yields continued to push higher, with the benchmark 10 Year US Treasury yield closing at 1.34%. Commodity prices continued to extend their recent gains. Copper prices gained over 7% and WTI Crude gained 5% by mid-week before giving back those gains over the past two sessions.