The Waiting Game

The Waiting Game

by Zach Marsh(13) on Oct 23, 2020

After Monday’s nearly 1.5% selloff following a weekend with no progress on a potential stimulus bill, the market traded in a narrow range, offering little in the way of future directional indication. The market seems somewhat trapped at the current levels, unwilling to make any concerted effort to move in any one direction for fear that the next headline would kill the narrative. Certainly, the market would like to see some headway on a new stimulus bill. However, it seems unlikely that the politicians will come to a compromise this close to the election. Rather, each side seems content to push the situation in a direction in which they can claim that the failure to reach a deal rest squarely on the back of the opposite side.

As we have highlighted on these pages numerous times, the market is definitely in search of continual stimulus to fuel the ride higher. Should the market fail to get what it wants it will be bound to pitch a fit like a five year old who gets his ball taken away. Additionally, the market is seeking some political clarity whichever direction that may be. I’ve mentioned before the market’s preference for one party control, which will increase the odds for larger stimulus. Perhaps the worst scenario for the market would be a divided congress and a Biden presidency as that will likely bring out the penny pinchers in the Senate. Should a divided congress be the outcome it would probably be met with an increase in monetary stimulus by the Federal Reserve. However, that may only come if congress fails to act, which may not be until after the new year. At that point, the market may have made its case heard in the form of a decent size correction.

As we sit now, the market (S&P 500) has gone almost nowhere since the beginning of September, making this week a small microcosm of the last two months—just one long waiting game. But the waiting game should all end in a couple of weeks, and the next concerted directional move should begin to materialize at that stage. Until then we wait.

Thanks for reading,

Zach and Dave  






All opinions are subject to change without notice. Neither the information provided, nor any opinion expressed, constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.  Tax laws are complex and subject to change. Calibrate Wealth LLC, does not provide tax or legal advice respect to the services or activities described herein except as otherwise provided in writing by Calibrate Wealth. Individuals are encouraged to consult their tax and legal advisors (a) before establishing a retirement plan or account, and (b) regarding any potential tax, ERISA and related consequences of any investments made under such plan or account.


This material does not provide individually tailored investment advice. It has been prepared without

regard to the individual financial circumstances and objectives of persons who receive it. The strategies

and/or investments discussed in this material may not be suitable for all investors. Calibrate Wealth

recommends that investors independently evaluate particular investments and

strategies, and encourages investors to seek the advice of a Financial Advisor. The appropriateness of a

particular investment or strategy will depend on an investor’s individual circumstances and objectives.

Investing in commodities entails significant risks. Commodity prices may be affected by a variety of

factors at any time, including but not limited to, (i) changes in supply and demand relationships, (ii)

governmental programs and policies, (iii) national and international political and economic events, war

and terrorist events, (iv) changes in interest and exchange rates, (v) trading activities in commodities

and related contracts, (vi) pestilence, technological change and weather, and (vii) the price volatility of a commodity. In addition, the commodities markets are subject to temporary distortions or other

disruptions due to various factors, including lack of liquidity, participation of speculators and

government intervention.


Foreign currencies may have significant price movements, even within the same day, and any currency

held in an account may lose value against other currencies. Foreign currency exchanges depend on the

relative values of two different currencies and are therefore subject to the risk of fluctuations caused by

a variety of economic and political factors in each of the two relevant countries, as well as global

pressures. These risks include national debt levels, trade deficits and balance of payments, domestic and

foreign interest rates and inflation, global, regional or national political and economic events, monetary

policies of governments and possible government intervention in the currency markets, or other